Super Bowl NFL DFS Picks: Best picks, sleepers for DraftKings, FanDuel single-game daily fantasy football lineups
Super Bowl Sunday is just days away, but there’s still plenty of time to make some savvy daily fantasy football or betting investments for the big game. With sports betting now legal in half of the continental United States, and more people than ever expected to watch from their own couches due to COVID-19, sports bets records will likely be shattered this weekend. That includes DFS sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo, which might see single-day highs in user activity this Sunday.
Football fans will be looking to close out the DFS season in style and bring home some winnings before the long seven-month wait for the 2021 season kickoff. With DFS player pools trimmed down to just two squads, it will be as important as ever for daily fantasy football managers to pinpoint the best value plays. Finding cost-efficient players who outperform their price tiers can afford managers studs at other roster spots.
MORE SUPER BOWL DFS: DraftKings Lineup | FanDuel Lineup | Lineup BuilderMy job, all 17 regular-season weeks and throughout the postseason, has been to scan the vast projections on RotoQL and pick my favorite sleepers and value picks. If you checked this column out two weeks ago, you would have benefited from our advice to plug in Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Leonard Fournette, Darrel Williams, Chris Godwin, Travis Kelce, and Dawson Knox.These players all vastly outperformed their price tiers. This week, with the help of RotoQL’s advanced projection systems, I will be assembling my favorite picks at each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel.Because only two teams remain, each site will be featuring their single-game formats rather than standard nine-spot lineups. DraftKings users will compete in “Showdown” mode, which features five utility spots and one slot for the “Captain,” who receives a 1.5x multiplier for all DK points accrued (plus 1.5x pricing). All players are still required to fit under a $50,000 salary cap. All options are in play, including QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, and each teams’ kicker and D/ST.On FanDuel, single-game contests feature an MVP spot (1.5x multiplier for points but not for price) and four AnyFlex spots with a $60,000 salary cap. Positive and negative scores are impacted by that multiplier, so if you choose a quarterback as MVP and they throw an interception, you will lose double the points you normally would. Conversely, each passing touchdown is six FD points (four in standard scoring) and a rushing or receiving TD is worth nine FD points.Since these formats are vastly different from what this column usually covers, this week’s column will list some of my favorite plays at each position and culminate in two lineups I deem optimal for each major DFS site. This will give you the rare opportunity to play the exact same lineups I play if you want. Now let’s make some money together!You can read Super Bowl previews and fantasy prediction articles 24/7 on BetQL, find out which side the pros are betting on their NFL expert picks dashboard, follow all the NFL public betting data, and build DraftKings lineups on RotoQL. Let’s break down our top Super Bowl DFS value plays, and you can get an idea of why 100,000 DFS players trust RotoQL to build lineups. We constantly monitor pricing and provide the most up-to-date insight and analysis to maximize your lineup success. Optimize, find value plays, and increase your chances of cashing today! Super Bowl NFL DFS Picks: QB Plays of the WeekRotoQL’s QB of the Week for DraftKings:Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK price: $12,000 | RotoQL projection: 26.9)Mahomes remains the best and most dominant quarterback in the sport, and thus he’s a fantastic choice to lead your squad regardless of cost or format. We especially like him on DraftKings for less than a quarter of the salary cap. The man does things with a football that we have never seen before, and the moment never appears too big for him. He proved that last Super Bowl, when his 286 passing yards and two touchdowns led the Chiefs to a 31-20 comeback victory. He’s the odds-on favorite to bring the Lombardi trophy (and Super Bowl MVP honors) back to Kansas City for the second straight year, probably because he went 37-of-49 for 462 yards and three touchdowns when these teams met on Nov. 29. Don’t let KC’s de facto status as the “road” team worry you — Mahomes averaged 321.1 passing yards and 2.4 touchdowns in the Chiefs’ eight games away from Arrowhead this season.RotoQL’s QB of the Week for FanDuel:Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (FD price: $15,000 | RotoQL projection: 28.6)In actuality, I will probably be rolling with Mahomes in both formats, but it’s simply more fun to craft two different lineups with two different QBs. Brady has been no slouch in his 21st season. If you include his three playoff games, nobody has passed for more gross yards since the 2020 NFL season kicked off (5,493). His 47 total passing TDs in that span trails only Aaron Rodgers, and he has an NFL-leading 28 passing TDs in away/neutral games. That last stat doesn’t play since the big game is at Raymond James, but it does illustrate how healthy his clutch gene remains at 43 years young. Oh, and there’s also the fact that he has six Super Bowl rings in nine appearances. He’s the G.O.A.T., and he’s more than worth $15,000 in your MVP spot in a $60K cap. Just don’t expect him to outscore Mahomes — the Chiefs need gaudy stats out of Mahomes to win, while the Bucs can rely much more on their running game.Super Bowl DraftKings, FanDuel Picks: RB Plays of the WeekRotoQL’s RB of the Week for DraftKings and FanDuel:Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (DK: $7,800 | FD: $12,500; RotoQL DK projection: 15.7| RotoQL FD projection: 13.7)Fournette became Tampa Bay’s starting running back in Week 15, and he never looked back. He has six total touchdowns in that six-week span, including one in each of the Bucs’ three postseason games. He also averages 104.3 yards from scrimmage in those playoff wins, appropriately earning him the nickname “Playoff Lenny.” Brady clearly trusts the fourth-year back, as evidenced by his recent increase in usage and volume. Since the playoffs began, Fournette has received a 60-percent carry share and played 74 percent of Tampa’s offensive snaps. He has also seen an increase in pass targets in each of the Bucs’ past three games. That last factor seals the argument for Playoff Lenny as a Super Sunday lock. He has caught 14-of-17 postseason passes for 102 yards. If Chris Jones and the Chiefs pass rush comes knocking early and often, Fournette could benefit from a plethora of dump-offs. Whether you play DK’s full-point PPR format or FD’s half-point PPR, Fournette is worth his DFS price tags this weekend. I would even make him the captain of your DraftKings lineup, which would cost a total of $11,700.RotoQL’s RB2 of the Week for DraftKings and RB of the Week for FanDuel:Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (DK price: $2,200 | FD price: $8,000; RotoQL DK projection: 7.9 | RotoQL FD projection: 7.4)Jones comes in at $1,000 cheaper than Darrel Williams on FanDuel, so he’s absolutely more valuable. But, for some reason he’s only $2,200 on DraftKings, which is the bargain of the year! Sure, he is not featured in the pass game that much, but that means very little to us. FD is a half-PPR format, and DK’s full-PPR does not merit the substantial price difference between Jones and Williams. Jones has received double-digit carries in the Bucs’ past four games, and he averaged 5.1 yards per carry on the season. He’s not an exciting play, but he’s the best value at these prices. All he has to do is fall into the end zone to get six points. He had eight touchdowns during the regular season.RotoQL’s RB3 of the Week for DraftKings:Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK: $5,200 | RotoQL DK projection: 6.1)Fans of Clyde Edwards-Helaire must have been ecstatic to see the rookie return for the AFC Championship game after Week 15 injuries to his hip and ankle. However, they were probably underwhelmed with CEH’s results: Six carries, one catch, seven total yards and a TD. Without that touchdown, he would have finished with under two fantasy points. RotoQL favors Williams, who has logged 13 carries and posted 13-plus PPR points in each of the Chiefs’ playoff games. Don’t worry, he scored a touchdown last week, too. Simply put, he’s healthier and more productive than the rookie right now.Super Bowl FanDuel, DraftKings Picks: WR Plays of the WeekRotoQL’s WR of the Week for DraftKings and FanDuel:Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK: $10,400 | FD: $14,000; RotoQL DK projection: 21.1 | RotoQL FD projection: 17.6)Hill has been about as matchup-proof as a wide receiver can be, and he’s posted 52.1 combined PPR points in the Chiefs’ two playoff games. He scored 60.9 against these same Buccaneers back in Week 12, so let’s just say that we see plenty of value in him at $10,400. The majority of my lineups include Hill, and yours should, too. (Side note: he also merits consideration in your MVP spot in FanDuel.)RotoQL’s WR2 of the Week for DraftKings and FanDuel:Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (DK: $8,800 | FD: $12,000; RotoQL projection: 17.0 | RotoQL FD projection: 14.0)Godwin has emerged as Brady’s favorite weapon, with 44 targets over Tampa Bay’s past five games. As a result, the fourth-year receiver has posted at least 18.9 PPR points in four of his past five outings. RotoQL lists Godwin’s ceiling at 44.2 points. He’s a great option if you can’t quite afford Hill.RotoQL’s WR3 of the Week for DraftKings and FanDuel:Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK: $5,600 | FD: $7,500; RotoQL: DK projection: 9.0 | RotoQL FD projection: 7.5)Hardman has very quietly put up back-to-back double-digit fantasy performances, and he’s a great sleeper pick this Sunday. The second-year receiver has caught eight of his past nine targets and found the end zone last week in Kansas City’s AFC Championship win over Buffalo. There also exists the possibility he finds the end zone as a punt and kick returner, as he made the Pro Bowl as a returner in his rookie season.Super Bowl NFL DFS Picks: TE Plays of the WeekRotoQL’s TE of the Week for DraftKings and FanDuel:Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK: $11,000 | FD: $14,500 | RotoQL DK projection: 25.4 | RotoQL FD projection: 18.4)I’ve been saying it for the last two rounds, but it bears repeating: Travis Kelce is the best tight end in football, and might be the most reliable DFS option of all time at the position. If you can find a way to budget him into your lineup, do it. The man gets peppered with targets from Mahomes — 72 over the course of the past six games — and always produces (52 catches in that span). He hauled in 13 of his 15 targets last week against the Bills, finishing with 118 yards and two touchdowns. He’s the real deal and a real steal at $11,000 on DraftKings. He’s a great option in your MVP spot, as well.RotoQL’s TE2 of the Week for DraftKings and FanDuel:Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (DK: $4,800 | FD: $7,000 | RotoQL DK projection: 7.3 | RotoQL FD projection: 5.8)Brate exceeded four targets in just two regular season games, but he’s enjoyed at least five targets in each of Tampa Bay’s three playoff contests. The veteran has translated this increased role into 11 postseason catches for 149 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. If you can’t afford to invest in the ceiling of Kelce, you could do worse than the cost-efficient floor of Brate.BetQL, RotoQL’s sister product, simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day and meaningful team trends. Check it out here!Super Bowl NFL DFS Value Plays:RotoQL’s Best Bargain Bin Buys:Scotty Miller, WR, TB (DK: $3,400 | FD: $6,500):The underrated slot receiver could find himself open for a big play or two in four and five-wide sets. Miller found the end zone last week and posted 10.6 DK/11.6 FD points.Kansas City D/ST (DK: $2,600):The Chiefs defense has vastly improved under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo this season, and he should be able to profit off some turnovers Sunday. Brady threw three interceptions in three consecutive possessions in the second half against Green Bay last week.Ryan Succop, K, TB (DK: $3,800 | FD: $8,500):RotoQL favors Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker (projecting him at 10 points to Succop’s seven), but I would opt for Succop if you need a cheap source of points. Brady’s kickers have historically succeeded in the big game, and Bruce Arians probably won’t gamble on too many fourth downs early.Super Bowl NFL DFS Picks: Optimal Lineups for DraftKings Showdown, FanDuel Single-Game LineupsMy Optimal Lineup in DraftKings:Captain (1.5x): Leonard Fournette, RB, TB ($11,700)FLEX: Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC ($12,000)FLEX: Tyreek Hill, WR, KC ($10,400)FLEX: Chris Godwin, WR, TB ($8,800)FLEX: Cameron Brate, TE, TB ($4,800)FLEX: Ronald Jones II, RB, TB ($2,200)Total: 49,900My Optimal Lineup in FanDuel:MVP (1.5x): Tom Brady, TB, QB ($15,000)AnyFLEX: Travis Kelce, KC, TE ($14,500)AnyFLEX: Tyreek Hill, KC, WR ($14,000)AnyFLEX: Ronald Jones II, TB, RB ($8,000)
AnyFLEX: Ryan Succop, TB, K ($8,500)Total: $60,000Thanks to all my loyal readers throughout the season. I hope you all enjoy what should be a fantastic Super Bowl and that you bring home some serious DFS cash to close out a great season!