Super Bowl 2021 odds, prediction, betting trends for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
The Chiefs and Buccaneers meet in Super Bowl 55 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., on Sunday (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
Kansas City is seeking to become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since New England in 2003-04. The Chiefs finished 14-2 in the regular season, and longtime coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes are pushing toward that next championship.
Tampa Bay returns to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2003, and the Buccaneers are led by quarterback Tom Brady, who is looking for his seventh Super Bowl championship in his 10th appearance. Tampa Bay finished 11-5 in the regular season and made the run from the wild-card round in the NFC playoffs. Bruce Arians is making his first appearance in the Super Bowl as a head coach. It’s an exciting matchup between two generational quarterbacks, and that should lead to a fantastic finish to a 2020 season impacted by COVID-19. Here’s everything to know about betting on Chiefs vs. Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for who will win Super Bowl 55. SUPER BOWL PICKS: Against the spread | Straight-up predictionsSuper Bowl odds 2021Spread: Kansas City -3 Over/under: 57.5 Moneyline: Kansas City -160, Tampa Bay +150 The Chiefs opened as a three-point favorite, and the line has bumped up a half-point on some sportsbooks since then. The over/under also moved up a point. A total of the wagering on the point spread is in favor of Kansas City covering the spread. Chiefs vs. Buccaneers all-time series The Buccaneers have a 7-6 lead in the all-time series with the Chiefs. Tampa Bay won five straight meetings ahead of this year’s matchup, which the Chiefs won 27-24 behind 462 passing yards and three TDs from Patrick Mahomes II. Three trends to know — The Buccaneers are 11-8 ATS this season, and they have found a niche as an underdog. Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS as an underdog, and they covered as a 3.5-point underdog in the regular-season meeting against the Chiefs. — The Chiefs were 8-10 against the spread this season, and they were 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. Kansas City was favored in all but one game this season. — The Chiefs have won five straight playoff games dating back to last season, and Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in that stretch. The Chiefs covered in the AFC championship game against the Bills. MORE: Five keys to a Buccaneers upset in Super Bowl 55Three things to watch — Bucs adjustments to Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce. Hill torched the Buccaneers in the first meeting. He caught 13 of 15 targets for 269 yards and three TDs, and that opened a 17-point lead in the second half. Hill had 203 yards in the first quarter and beat man coverage from Carlton Davis repeatedly. Travis Kelce had eight catches for 82 yards and will be active in the middle of the field against Tampa Bay linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White. — Tampa Bay ground game. How many times have you watched Brady win a Super Bowl with a balanced attack? Tampa Bay had just 13 rushing attempts in the first meeting with Kansas City, and Leonard Fournette had just three carries. Fournette has scored a TD in each playoff game for Tampa Bay in a tandem attack with Ronald Jones II, and the Buccaneers cannot abandon the run like the Packers did in the NFC championship game. That will help avoid an early deficit against the Chiefs. — Brady “it” factor. This is Brady’s 10th Super Bowl appearance, and he has a 95.6 career passer rating in the Super Bowl. Brady and Mahomes have met in the postseason one time, and in that game Brady led the game-winning drive for the Patriots in overtime. He threw a fourth-quarter TDs to Mike Evans in the regular-season meeting with the Chiefs. If it comes down to the fourth quarter, then Tampa Bay is in good shape. Brady has 12 TDs and one interception in the fourth quarter this season. Stat that matters Turnover ratio. The Chiefs and Buccaneers have near-mirror turnover ratios on the season. Tampa Bay had a +8 turnover ratio in the regular season and went +2 in three playoff games. The Bucs converted two Packers’ turnovers into touchdowns in the NFC championship game and weathered three interceptions from Brady in the second half. Kansas City had a +6 turnover ratio in the regular season and went +1 in two playoff games. The Chiefs had just two games with multiple turnovers all season. In the regular-season matchup, Tampa Bay committed two turnovers while Kansas City had one. In a game like this, that one turnover can account for the one-score difference in the end. MORE SUPER 55 PROP BETS:National Anthem | Halftime Show | BroadcastSuper Bowl prediction How does the Chiefs’ attack hold up without star tackle Eric Fisher, who suffered a season-ending injury in the AFC championship game? Tampa Bay’s Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul disrupted the Packers’ offense in the NFC championship game. Kansas City’s attack is different. Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is more aggressive, and that will test Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. The Chiefs are built to take the early lead, and they will with a pair of first-half TD passes from Mahomes.
Brady will lead a second-half comeback again. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski will make their share of plays in the passing games, and Fournette could be the X-factor on the ground. It will come down to the fourth quarter, but in this game Brady does not get the ball with a chance to take the lead. Kansas City presents too many problems from Tampa Bay and will play with the lead for most of the game. Mahomes wins Super Bowl MVP honors, and this franchise will start thinking three-peat under Andy Reid after a thriller. Final score: Chiefs 35, Buccaneers 32